The consensus is that global warming will cause Arctic ice to melt within about 40 years.
That is several centuries faster than would have happened naturally.
What is going to happen?
Commercial ships began using the Arctic for the first time in 2009. The Northwest Passage has been closed for tens of thousands of years.
The Arctic is arid like most deserts. There is not enough precipitation to create the Arctic ice cap.
How did the ice form in the Arctic Ocean?
How did an ice sheet over 1 mile thick accumulate over Canada and Europe?
Arctic Ice blocked ship traffic through the Arctic Ocean between Europe and Asia for 50,000 years.
People did not melt the ice that ended the last ice age. Global warming has dominated our climate for 20,000 years.
The arctic is bone-dry because air from high altitude sinks over both poles. This effectively blocks precipitation over the ice caps.
Arctic Ocean temperature is less than degree 60F, which does not produce much evaporation. This evaporation is cut off by advancing ice during winter months, so almost all precipitation falls during summer months.
Not enough winter snow to build an ice sheet 1 mile thick.
Arctic and antarctic precipitation can be less than 1 inch/year. That doesn't even keep up with summertime ice melting.
Recent information indicates Arctic ice accumulated fast during the last ice age. Very fast. Fast enough for a single storm to entoumb arctic adapted animals.
How could the Arctic ice cap form during the last ice age?
Precipitation depends upon jet streams that were discovered in the 1940s.
The average location of the jet streams in the northern hemisphere have been moving toward the pole at ab
out 1 mile/year since their discovery.
The jet stream at 30 degrees is where cold-dry air from high altitude sinks so deserts form - like the Sahara and the American Southwest. The jet stream at 60 degrees is where warm-moist air rises to hight altitude so rain clouds form - like over Canada and Europe. Air rises at the equator and that makes rain forrests.
Shifting average position of the jet stream means our air is transporting more heat to the poles every year. Solar heating has declined since 1700, and less energy has been coming from the sun. This movement is the result of air masses that expand as they are being heated, and this heating is due to carbon dioxide accumulation in the atmosphere.
Here is the important question - what happens if extra heat drives the northern-most jet stream all the way to the pole?
Answer - over 100 inches of ice accumulation every year over Canada and Northern Europe.
One foot of unmelted snowfall over the pole every week during fall, winter and spring.
This kind of perpetual ice storm would freeze animals inside a glacier while they have undigested vegitation in their stomach.
Entire cities could be buried under an ice sheet during a single storm if this kind of thing happens.
Canada and Europe under 1000 feet of ice within 1 generation if jet streams move - just like the geological evidence.
Accumulating ice will run all the way south to Oregon, Spain, and Pensylvania.
The rain forrest zone of the equator would expand 1000 miles toward the poles, creating fertile land in the Sahara and in the American Southwest from Los Angeles soutward to the equator. Everything north of San Francisco and the Mediteranean would become desert all the way north to the ice cap.
Evidence indicates this happens about every 100 thousand years, and the last cycle began 70,000 years ago.
There is no evidence that indicates this will not happen again.
Accumulating carbon dioxide could accelerate this change.
Archaologist, geologists and climatologists all agree sea level was about 400 feet below present until about 20,000 years ago. The Arctic polar ice cap had to be at least 1 mile thick at that time. Global warming has already raised sea level by 400 feet when the arctic polar ice cap melted during the last 20,000 years.
This melting never stopped.
The Northwest Passage opened in 2009. It was impossible to cross the Arctic by boat because the Arctic Ocean used to be covered by ice all year long. Many arctic explorers perished looking for the Northwest Passage. Enough Arctic ice has melted to open a passage between the Atlantic and the Pacific. The remnants of the Arctic polar ice cap began to float on the surface of the sea a few thousand years ago, so sea level stopped rising while Arctic melting continued. There has been no observable rise in sea level as the remaining Arctic ice cap melted during the last few centuries.
Floating ice makes our climate constant the same way melting ice keeps a drink at a steady temperature. Fluid level does not change as floating ice melts.
Water is responsible for melting the Arctic ice. The Gulf Stream carries much of the equatorial solar heat absorbed in the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans straight to the Arctic. That is why Europe is warm with significant rainfall and not icy cold and dry most of the time. The thickness of air covering earth has a mass equivalent to about 33 feet of water. Water covers about 70% of the surface with an average depth of about 5000 feet. This means about 99% of the heat from the sun is contained in water and not in air. A rise in sea temperature of 0.01 degree is the equivalent of a rise in air temperature of about 1.0 degree.
Arctic ice keeps the Arctic sea temperature low. Low temperature over the pole helps to maintain the present jet stream positions.
There is not enough precipitation over the Arctic pole or over the Antarctic pole to accumulate the amount of ice that had to be present during the last ice age. Polar areas have the equivalent of about 1 inch of rainfall each year, just like the deseerts of the Sahara and Amercian Southwest. It would take at 60,000 years (or more) to accumulate the ice caps from the last ice age at that rate, and that little snow fall is not enough to freeze the ocean covering the whole Arctic no mater how cold it gets. Ice is a good insulator, and sea surface freezing stops after a few dozen feet of ice accumulates on the surface.
The archaological record and the science of ice formation indicates the only way a one mile thick ice cap could form is if there is much greater Arctic precipitation.
People recorded observations during the end of the last ice age. Oral traditions from about 20,000 years ago were handed down from generation to generation until about 6,000 years ago when these traditions were recorded in writing.
People that wrote the Bible, Torah and Kuran documented what they saw. Most of the Genesis story matches the geologic and archaologic record. The Garden of Eden is described as an area in the Middle East between Iraq and Kuwait. The book of Genesis clearly describes the Tigris and the Euphrates as flowing in an area that had lush vegitation and plentiful rainfall. That is the Persian Gulf as it looked over 10,000 years ago. The depth of the Persian Gulf is about 400 feet, so the botom of the Persian Gulf was above sea level until about 20,000 years ago. Areas of the Sahara Desert have petroglyphs drawn on rocks by people that show animals that live only where there is water and vegitation - hippopotomus & alagators.
The Sahara was covered with vegitation and rivers as recently as 280 generations ago.
The Genesis story of the naming of the animals in the Arabian Peninsula area agrees with these rock drawings. This describes a period about 20,000 years ago. RARAR imaging of the Sahara Desert shows river beds that are now submerged below sand. Almost all of the Sahara Desert region has a large body of fresh water beneath the surface that could not possibly be there unless there was much greater rainfall.
Rainfall has shifted to create arid deserts in areas that had no deserts 20,000 years ago.
Shifting rainfall means the jet streams have moved.
The difficulty is that rising sea level and shifting sand has buried much of the evidence.
All human settlements on river deltas from over 10,000 years ago are now under water. That includes the area of the world described in Geneis that is now submerged or covered by sand. All people that lived near rivers until a few thousand years ago because they could not drill wells or transport large quantities of water over land. All people require about 1 gallon/day of fresh drinking water, and we can only go about 3 days without water before we suffer kidney damage. This means human populations were restricted within a few miles of flowing water until domesticated animals and kiln fired ceramics about 10,000 years ago.
Sea floor sediments accumulate at a rate of about 2mm/century near continents.
Things that were submerged during sea level rise from the last ice age are no longer visible because they have been covered by at least one foot of sediment. Every spec of organic material for carbon 14 dating would have been devoured by sea creatures long ago. The only way ogranic material could survive underwater is sterilized in a leak-proof containers invented during the French Revolution. The only other things that survive are bone and things made from stone, like carved rock.
Global warming engineering is fairly obvious.
The Gulf Stream acts like the fluid in a refrigerator.
Hot Gulf Stream water flows into the Arctic at about 2 cubic miles per second between Greenland and Finland. Cold water exits the Arctic Ocean between Alaska and Russia.
Refrigerator cooling fluid speeds up when you add more heat. Refrigerator cooling fluid slows down when you add less heat. The fluid temperature doesn't change. Same cooling fluid temperature both ways.
Adding more heat to equatorial ocean water will speed up the Gulf Stream and produce more clouds. Cooling equatorial water temperature will slow down the Gulf Stream and reduce rainfall. The same phenomenon as found in refrigerator colling fluid.
The Gulf Stream performs exactly the same function as the cooling fluid in a refrigerator. Ocean heat from the equator is brought to the arctic where it melts ice.
Arctic ice keeps our climate reasonably constant as it sacrifices heat to cool the Gulf Stream.
Declining polar ice will cause the Gulf Stream to slow down because of a smaller temperature change. Rising Atlantic Ocean and Arctic Ocean heat will create greater precipitation over the east coast of the United States, the east coast of Canada, and western Europe.
Declining polar ice will also reduce sunlight reflection and increase Arctic Ocean heating.
Polar air will heat up as the Arctic Ocean accumulates more heat.
When polar air heats up enough, the rainfall from the northern most jet stream will most likely move over the pole.
The global loss in terms of economy, famine, warfare, and human life will be unimaginable when this occurs.
There is no competent model of global heating.
Risk is unknown.
No possible excuse exists for why a competent climate model does not exist given the possibility of this kind of catostrophic outcome.
With no climate model, there is no way to predict the outcome of global heating.
The kinds of predictions provided by a competent climate model are needed to plan the redistribution of resources so that global warfare, global famine, and catostrophic loss of life can be avoided.
Lack of a global climate model to predict the outcome of atmospheric carbon dioxide accumulation is profoundly reckless.